Hopster, Jeroen. "Climate Uncertainty, Real Possibilities and the Precautionary Principle". Springer Nature. September 21, 2021. https://link.springer.com/... (Contributed by Gregory Autin).

While skepticism is crucial to scientific inquiry and research, the precautionary principle is ambiguous about the distinction between risk and uncertainty.  One challenge for proponents of the precautionary principle is to clarify when evidence that a harmful event could occur is sufficient to consider it a real possibility.  Plausible versions of the principle must articulate a validation threshold that specify when precautionary measures are warranted.  This article argues that the ambiguity can be resolved and the validation puzzle solved.  Focusing on decisions in the context of climate uncertainty, this version of the precautionary principle serves as a plausible decision rule that can be applied in situations where the main alternative – cost-benefit analysis – fails.

Posted on 22/01/25

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